Welcome to Fractional. The only weekly newsletter delivering actionable insights on fractional investments.
If you like what you see here, please consider forwarding it to a friend or giving us a shoutout on Twitter.
This week, I’m digging into Collectable’s Tom Brady Rookie card, IPO’ing at $56,600 17 December at 1pm EST.
What is the 2000 Tom Brady SP Authentic PSA 10 Gem Mint?
This is the most sought after widely-available rookie card for Tom Brady. Brady, love him or hate him, is generally considered the best quarterback ever to play the game.
Of the 567 PSA-graded Tom Brady rookie cards, only 98 merit PSA 10
Tom Brady is Still a Big Deal
Tom Brady is 43 years old, and he’s still playing in the NFL after more than 20 seasons. Far from fading away, his popularity continues to increase.
He’s got nearly 8m Instagram followers
Compare that to other current NFL quarterbacks:
Russel Wilson: 4.9m
Patrick Mahomes: 4m
Drew Brees: 1.7m
Aaron Rodgers: 1.4m
Josh Allen: 356k
And it’s not even close.
What’s Tom Brady’s Rookie Card Worth?
Collectable is IPO’ing this card at $56,600 on the 17th of December. Is it a good deal?
There’s a lot of auction data to support our analysis here. Heritage Auctions sold a PSA 10 on 13 December for $50,400. Goldin did the same in November for the exact same price.
That gives us a hard floor around 10% below Collectable’s IPO price.
Analysing half a dozen other auctions in the last four years give us a strong trend.
Benchmarks and other comparables
There are two other pieces of Tom Brady memorabilia we can look at to get a better feel for what’s going on with this card.
Tom Brady Game Worn Jerseys
Five game-worn jerseys have been auctioned off in the last six years between the Heritage and Goldin auction houses. The price points and trend track pretty well with the SP Authentic rookie on offer with Collectable.
Tom Brady’s *Other* Rookie Card
There’s a more valuable and more sought-after rookie card for Tom Brady. The 2000 Playoff Contenders Autograph edition. Only 100 of these were made.
Rally IPO’ed a 9/10 version of this card in October at $45,000. Add in the four other auctions of 9/10 versions of this card since 2017, and we get another similar trendline and price point
Consolidated Comparable Analysis
When we combine all three data series (this offer, the jerseys, and the other card), we’re able to paint a pretty compelling picture of this card’s value and likely trajectory.
Support for the GOATs
Support for premium assets in this space has outpaced lower quality items with a real emphasis on headline stars.
Wayne Gretzky and Michael Jordan collectables have been soaring lately, and Tom Brady looks to follow suit.
Sports Cards are Flying
Dedicated funds are popping up to invest exclusively in sports cards.
Search volume is going through the roof.
Verdict on Collectable’s Tom Brady Rookie
This is a 4/5 buy for me (see below for rating detail)
Strong lower support
Brady continues to be popular with a positive trend
His other collectables combine to form strong support
Sports cards have a strong tailwind
There are potentially other investments coming up with higher upside
Just one more thing
If you’re not subscribed to it already, I strongly encourage you to check out Stefan’s weekly newsletter highlighting interesting alternative investments. You can find it here.
Last week, he interviewed Collectable CEO Ezra Levine, which I’d highly recommend.