Mookie Betts, Jackie Robinson + Van Halen
Seven minute read
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Because fractional investing is so new, there are lots of inefficiencies if you know where and how to look. Or if you’re as obsessed as I am.
This week, I told my paid subscribers about three that can be actioned immediately. One has a potential ROI over 800%.
If you’d like to hear about these—and more like this every week—you can subscribe to Fractional Arb. There are seven spots left before prices go up.
The introductory price is $20/mo or $200/yr, and I’m limiting the initial batch to 20 subscribers.
⚾ Mookie Betts 2018 Glove
What is it?
Available from Collectable today (Tuesday), this is the glove Mookie Betts wore most of the 2018 season. That season, he became the first player ever to win the:
MVP
Gold Glove
World Series
Batting title
Silver slugger
All in the same season.
In 2020, the Red Sox traded him for a tax break.
Cultural Relevance
Ranked the second and fourth best player in the league for 2019 and 2020, Mookie Betts is a lock for the Hall of Fame already, and—barring injury—he still has several years to play. 2018 has been his best year to date, though he’s probably not peaked, statistically-speaking.
There are 17m search results for Betts in Google to go alongside 385k monthly searches for his name.
For reference, the consensus best-player-in-the-league, Mike Trout, has around 21m results and only 200k searches per month.
Valuation
This is sort of worth whatever you’re willing to pay for it, because there aren’t really any comps for this. The closest I could find:
2004 Mariano Rivera 300th Career Save Game Worn & Signed Fielder's Glove - $19,200
2003 Derek Jeter Game Used & Signed Fielder's Glove - $36,000
Collectable paid $54k for it in October, and his trading cards have appreciated 73% since then. Perhaps that’s a useful data point.
Outlook and catalysts
Betts will continue to improve for the next several years and, as I said, is a lock for the Hall of Fame. Unlike Trout, he also tends to be more newsworthy and contentious.
There are plenty of opportunities for this card to both appreciate and realise positive catalysts.
Verdict
This feels ok? It’s certainly one that will appreciate in time, but it’s difficult to say what the value is today.
Because fractional investing is so new, there are lots of inefficiencies if you know where and how to look. Or if you’re as obsessed as I am.
This week, I’m telling my paid subscribers about three that can be actioned immediately.
If you’d like to hear about these—and more like this every week—you can subscribe to Fractional Arb. There are seven spots left before prices go up.
The introductory price is $20/mo or $200/yr, and I’m limiting the initial batch to 20 subscribers.
🎸Eddie Van Halen Signed Concert-used guitar
What is it?
This is a signed, custom-made Charvel EVH Art Series guitar played by Eddie Van Halen at a 2008 concert in Tampa Bay, FL. The set, while certainly awesome, doesn’t seem to have any particular relevance.
Cultural Relevance
Eddie Van Halen is considered by many to be the finest guitarist of all time. He broke the mould in 1978 when he debuted his eponymous album.
According to the RIAA, Van Halen is the 19th best-selling music group/artist of all time with sales of over 56 million albums in the US, and is one of five rock bands that have had two albums (Van Halen and 1984) sell more than ten million copies in the US. All in, Van Halen sold more than 92m albums and has been streamed in excess of 1.6b times.
Eddie passed away in October 2020.
Valuation
There have been several Van Halen guitars sold recently, and Rally’s own valuation shows a pretty solid range:
The guitar that sold with Heritage in November for $52,500 is probably a good comp, and Rally paid $54k for this one in December. I’d put inferred value at right around $50k to $55k
Outlook and catalysts
There’s not a lot to go with here. Before Eddie passed in October, interest in Van Halen had been steadily decreasing for the last fifteen years.
Unfortunately Van Halen gear has already sort of had the death bump. (sorry morbid)
Verdict
While undeniably a very cool asset, this one is only an ok investment. It’s IPO’ing at a premium to its Inferred Value with no clear positive catalysts on the horizon.
That said, this is primed for the Rally Bubble. It’ll fund quickly and probably pop at the first trading window regardless of actual value.
⚾ Jackie Robinson 1948 Leaf Baseball Card
What is it?
This is Jackie Robinson’s “one true rookie card.” The 1948 Leaf set was the first to appear in colour after the war. There are 40 PSA 8s and 8 PSA 9s available. I couldn’t find pop reports for the SGC or GAI graded versions, but there are some out there.
Cultural Relevance
What can you say about the first African American to play the game professionally? Jackie Robinson changed the game and changed the way Americans looked at the game.
The card IPOs the first Friday of Black History Month in the US, which is significant.
Robinson has 56m google results (more than 3x Betts) and still gets nearly a quarter million searches a month.
His popularity has remained remarkably consistent as well. The bump you see in 2013 is the release of the film 42.
Jackie Robinson Day, celebrated every year since 2014, continues to grow in popularity.
Valuation
We have some pretty good data for a card with so few comps, which makes for a lovely change.
The most recent sale came from a Goldin auction in mid-December $391k. Rally paid $340k via private purchase, also in mid-December. Robinson cards as a whole have appreciated around 30% since then.
We can safely assign an inferred value of $500k for this card.
Outlook and catalysts
Jackie Robinson is and will continue to be a massively important historical figure, and his influence will only increase as issues of racism and discrimination are given further importance in professional sports.
Further, Robinson will ride the trend of blue chip baseball cards higher as the sports card trend continues its meteoric rise.
Verdict
This looks like a great buy to me.
Disclaimer 1: I plan to buy shares of the Jackie Robinson card.
Disclaimer 2: Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial or legal advice. Do your own research, you lazy rascals.